Recently our friend John Lott posted a paper on SSRN which found significant statistical anomalies in county-level vote numbers around Atlanta and Philadelphia. His paper was then mentioned by Trump as ‘proof’ that the election was a ‘fraud.’
The moment this happened, my friends in Gun-control Nation and other liberal groups started screaming and yelling because they tend to become apoplectic anyway whenever anyone mentions John Lott by name.
Before I get into an analysis of John’s argument about voting in GA and PA, let me first say that I happen to find much of John’s research on guns to be important and based on original data which he has developed outside of the usual CDC and other open-source data that everyone else uses when they do research on guns.
By 1990, a majority of Americans believed that access to a gun, particularly a handgun, made you safe. John Lott published his book which claimed that more guns meant less crime in 1998. I cover this issue in detail in an op-ed published by The Hill, and blaming John’s scholarship for the reason we suffer from 125,000 gun injuries every year is not only wrong intellectually speaking, but when other scholars use John’s work as a foil for their failure to engage in productive gun-violence research, it’s beneath contempt. Anyway, back to the election ‘fraud.’
John’s paper compares absentee vote totals for counties outside of Atlanta and Philadelphia to the urban, city counties themselves. The latter counties are where voting ‘fraud’ through the flimflamming of absentee ballots occurred in 2020, no allegation of voting irregularities was made in 2016.
What John found was that Trump’s absentee vote totals were significantly less in 2020 than in 2016, pointing to the possibility that absentee ballots for Trump were discarded or otherwise not counted at all. John didn’t find a similar disparity in absentee vote totals for 2016, nor did he find that the gap between Trump and Biden absentee votes was caused by more Democratic absentee votes, because his study controlled for in-person voting on both sides.
While the alleged vote-counting irregularities were somewhat different in Pennsylvania, John found the same decline in absentee ballots for Trump when he compared totals for 2020 versus county totals for 2016. The drop in Trump’s absentee strength in Pennsylvania was not as significant as it was in Georgia, but the numbers of ‘missing’ GOP ballots were still large enough to tilt the state back towards the blue team.
If the issue of election ‘fraud’ was just confined to these two states, I might be willing to buy John’s argument without raising any concerns. But this same argument is used by the Trump campaign to explain why every crucial ‘battleground’ state went from red to blue and gave Biden a victory he didn’t deserve.
That being the case, how come we don’t hear anything about election ‘fraud’ in a swing state like Florida, which the GOP carried in 2016 and 2020, but lost in 2012? God knows Florida has enough inner-city precincts in cities like Jacksonville and Orlando to put together a nice, vote-theft plan. But there’s another problem with John’s theory about absentee GOP ballots going into the trash can as well.
In Georgia, Trump got 2,089,104 votes in 2016. In 2020 his vote total was 2,461,854, an increase of 17.8%. Hillary got 1,877,963 votes in 2016, Joe got 2,473,633 last year, an increase of 31.7%. In Pennsylvania, Trump went from 2,970,733 to 3,377,674, an increase of 13.6%. Meanwhile, the blue vote in Pennsylvania went from 2,962,441 to 3,458,229, an increase of 16.7%. Putting numbers from both states together, the GOP increased its votes by 15.4%, from 2016 to 2020, the Democrats increased their statewide vote by 22.5% over the same four years,
Trump keeps saying that no sitting President ever received 74 million votes in a re-election campaign. Indeed, the increase from 2016 was an impressive 17.4%. Meanwhile, on the blue side, the national vote went up by 23.4%. As we say on the street corner, who’s zoomin’ who?
Trump’s TV lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, claims he has ‘proof’ that Joe’s victory was a ‘national conspiracy” involving officials in at least 10 swing states.
Want to believe Rudy? Go right ahead.